Supercomputer predictions have analysed Everton’s new found chances of staying up in the Premier League following a 10-point deduction - and the picture is now a lot bleaker Sean Dyche’s men.
The Goodison Park outfit have been waiting nervously all month for their verdict after an independent commission delved into the technicalities of a potential breach over FFP sustainability rules, with Friday afternoon bringing the news that the club would be starting again on four points after a guilty verdict.
It leaves Sean Dyche and his coaching staff with a lot to do as they sit 19th in the table. A win would drag them out of the bottom three should Luton and Sheffield United both fail to win next weekend following the international break, though even taking three points above their relegation rivals wouldn’t blow them out of the picture completely - and Bettingexpert.com’s supercomputer ‘Betsie’ has ran the numbers to see how the deduction could effect Everton in the future.
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The computer’s simulations ran 100,000 times after the points deduction, taking into account results from last season in all competitions, pre-season results and the current season as it has progressed, alongside expectations before the season and xG across the previous two seasons.
And with that in mind, Everton have gone from a 1.4 percent chance of being relegated prior to the deduction to an incredible 21.4 per cent - an increase of 20 per cent flat.
It’s not all doom and gloom. Even with the deduction, the previous bottom three are still expected to go down instead of the Toffees.
Sheffield United’s chances of relegation have diminished but only ever so slightly, from 96.2 per cent to 94.7 per cent, whilst Luton have gone from 87.1 per cent to 83.5 per cent, and Burnley have dropped the most with a 6.3 per cent increased chance of staying up - heading from 76.6 per cent chance of relegation to just a 70.3 per cent chance.
The table now predicts Everton to earn 35 points, ahead of 18th-placed Burnley who have 28 expected points.
